A 100 Days of the Chaos Theory - April 2025
- Rebecca
- May 1
- 3 min read
April 30th marked the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s presidency. He promised Americans “a boom like no other” if elected. Depending on your definition of “boom,” the action has certainly been explosive. From a financial perspective, Trump’s first 100 days registered one of the worst stock market runs for a new president since Gerald Ford in 1974, following Richard Nixon’s resignation. Compounding this were historically low approval ratings and volatile statements, often followed by retractions—signalling a new economic direction no longer anchored in predictability or policy stability.
Beyond humanitarian or geopolitical concerns, this period presents an opportunity to examine the personality traits that drive leadership in chaotic times—and what we might learn about ourselves in the process.
Understanding Behaviour Through Personality
Trump’s early presidency provides a vivid case study of the “Challenger with Maverick energy”—a term drawn from the Enneagram personality framework, where he would likely align with Type 8w7. This personality type is bold, confrontational, and thrives on high-stakes situations. Trump displayed classic traits of this type: dominance, a desire to disrupt norms, and an unshakeable belief in his ability to win against the odds.
These characteristics translated directly into behavioral finance patterns. For instance:
Overconfidence bias: Seen in his rapid attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act without consensus—an ambitious but poorly coordinated move based on deep self-belief.
Illusion of control: Trump claimed he could single-handedly boost economic growth and renegotiate trade deals before key departments were even formed.
Risk-seeking behavior: Evident in controversial executive orders, such as the travel ban targeting Muslim-majority countries—decisive, but politically and legally explosive.
Confirmation bias: His preference for loyal advisors and media sources like Fox News reinforced his worldview while dismissing dissent as “fake news.”
Sunk cost fallacy: His refusal to pivot on failing policies or rhetoric reflected a resistance to admitting error, even when public reaction was negative.
Together, these behaviors mirror the decision-making risks and rewards of dominant, self-assured individuals who favor momentum and image over deliberation and data.
What Does This Mean for You?
With 1,360 days potentially remaining in such a presidency—or any prolonged period of economic and political turbulence—the need to build resilience in your financial thinking is critical.
How to Manage Times of Stress in Your Investment Portfolio
In uncertain times, step one is to pause and review your financial goals. If you haven’t set them clearly, begin by reverse-engineering from where you want to be. Once your goals are defined, the next question becomes:How do you behave under pressure?
This isn’t just about knowing the numbers. It’s about understanding your financial personality—so you can build systems to manage the stress, noise, and emotional strain of volatile environments.
From a behavioral finance perspective, the following biases are especially common during chaos:
Loss aversion: The fear of losing money may lead to panic selling or overly conservative choices that miss recovery opportunities.
Herd behavior: Following others without critical thinking can magnify volatility.
Availability bias: Overreacting to dramatic recent news while ignoring broader trends.
Overreaction bias: Making sharp portfolio changes based on short-term headlines rather than long-term strategy.
Emotional contagion: Letting media-driven anxiety override rational thinking.
Understanding your personality type—whether assertive, cautious, or reactive—helps you recognize these patterns. For example, some people overtrade in panic, while others retreat to cash and avoid opportunities. Tools like the Enneagram can act as a behavioural compass, helping you stay aligned with long-term plans through self-awareness, discipline, and perspective. For our readers, we are offering an introductory call to explore more about your personality with a financial MOT and Personalised Road Map session to Your Financial Personality, backed by behavioural finance. Click here to organise your free 15-minute call to discover more about how you can assess your personality and your approach in these chaotic times.
Geneva, Switzerland 1st May 2025
Author - Rebecca Ellis, ARIF Swiss Client Advisor
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